Objectives
The aim of newTRENDs (New trends in energy demand modeling) is to increase the qualitative and quantitative understanding of impacts of New Societal Trends on energy consumption and to improve the model¬ling of energy demand, energy efficiency and policy instruments. Through this, the ability of policy makers to guide those trends in the light of the Paris Agreement and the long-term climate and energy targets of the European Union can be increased.
Derived from this overall objective, the project newTRENDs has the three detailed sub goals. The first goal aims at identifying and quantifying how New Societal Trends affect energy demand (its structure and patterns, including cross-sectoral interdependencies). The subsequent goal aims to investigate how energy demand models are to be improved to represent New Societal Trends and to represent policies that can influence such trends in the light of the Energy Efficiency First Principle in energy demand models. The final goal aims for integrating recent empirical findings on the impacts of New Societal Trends as well as information from detailed data sources such as smart meter data available from recent technical advances into energy demand models, in order to improve the empirical basis for such investigations. Special care is given to uncertainties that are inherent when assessing New Societal Trends.
Methods
From a methodological perspective, three major aspects characterize the newTRENDs project. Firstly, the combination of foresight methods with quantitative model runs is implemented to select appropriate trends and work out, how such trends can be quantified. For this purpose relevant trends are selected and their relevance for the energy system is assessed during a deep dive analysis. A condensation of those trends in clusters as well as the translation to model parameters and modelling gaps is carried out.
Secondly, it is investigated how existing, well-known energy demand models are to be improved to represent New Societal Trends, e.g. through agent-based and cross-sectoral approaches and how policies are represented in the demand models. For this, an initial scenario run of the existing demand models is carried out. Based on this a gap analysis of modelling structure as well as empirical data and an analysis of necessary model adaption is implemented. After realizing the model adaptions, a second scenario run is carried out for the comparison with the initial results.
The third methodological aspects focusses on the data perspective and aims to integrate recent empirical findings on consumption patterns and policy impacts. Those data will be analysed statistically and integrated in the models focussing on prosumager behaviour. In addition, the data can be used for policy analysis.
Library
Please note that below publications are not authored by IEECP.
Policy briefs:
- Energy demand-side policy needs at European level | READ HERE
- Understanding residential energy demand flexibility | READ HERE
- What are the new societal trends that will shape our future energy demand and how? | READ HERE
- Circular buildings – paving the way to a net-zero industry | READ HERE
Reports:
- Identifying new societal trends impacting future energy demand (D2.1) | DOWNLOAD HERE
- Pathways for New Societal Trends and gap analysis for demand models (D3.1) | DOWNLOAD HERE
- Diagnosis of energy demand-side policy needs at European level (D4.1) | DOWNLOAD HERE
- Impact assessment of household-level behavioral interventions via smart-meter data (4.2) | DOWNLOAD HERE
- Assessment of energy demand-side models from the perspective of policy makers’ needs at European level (D4.3) | DOWNLOAD HERE
- Recommendations for better design of energy-demand modeling based on policy makers’ needs (D4.4) | DOWNLOAD HERE
- Statistical learning of residential electricity consumption data (D5.1) | DOWNLOAD HERE
- Modeling of prosumagers and energy communities in energy demand models (D5.2) | DOWNLOAD HERE
- Modeling the interaction of prosumagers and energy markets/ supply side (D5.3) | DOWNLOAD HERE
- Focus study report on decarbonisation and circular economy in industry (D6.1) | DOWNLOAD HERE
- Model developments to simulate sharing economy and new trends in transport (D7.1) | DOWNLOAD HERE
- The 1st newTRENDs stakeholder meeting (D8.6) | DOWNLOAD HERE
Scientific publications:
- Real-time feedback on electricity consumption: evidence from a field experiment in Italy | READ HERE
- Kreislaufwirtschaft für die Dekarbonisierung des Bausektors – Modellierung ausgewählter Stoffströme und dazugehöriger THG-Emissionen | READ HERE
- Enablers and Barriers in the Market-Driven Rollout of Smart Metering: Polish Technology Innovation System Analysis | READ HERE
- Coupling circularity performance and climate action: From disciplinary silos to transdisciplinary modelling science | READ HERE
- Investigating the impact of smart energy management system on the residential electricity consumption in Austria | READ HERE
- Energy Efficiency Vision 2050: How will new societal trends influence future energy demand in the European countries? | READ HERE
- A dynamic material flow model for the European steel cycle | READ HERE
- Mitigation options for decarbonization of the non-metallic minerals industry and their impacts on costs, energy consumption and GHG emissions in the EU – Systematic literature review | READ HERE
- A material flow model of steel and concrete in EU buildings: National differences of the service-stock-flow nexus | READ HERE
- Reduction of gas demand through changes in heating behaviour in households: Novel insights from modelling and empirical evidence| READ HERE
After event materials:
- Final newTRENDs conference materials | FIND HERE
- Insights from workshop: empowering consumer energy saving and sharing | FIND HERE
- newTRENDs at eceee 2022 – How can new societal trends support the transition to low energy demand ? | FIND HERE
- newTRENDs at the European Climate and Energy Modelling Platform (ECEMP) Conference | FIND HERE
- newTRENDs at the 13th international energy economics conference – Circular economy along the building value chain | FIND HERE