Assessment of energy demand-side models from the perspective of policy makers’ needs at European level


Consumers and behavioural change
Efficient and resilient energy system
Energy savings obligation, monitoring and verification


To achieve the Paris Agreement goals, two central strategies have to be implemented in all countries:

i) enhancing energy efficiency (EE) and

(ii) decarbonizing remaining energy supply and demand. Scenarios with different
focus and assumptions have been developed to map this development until 2050.

While these scenarios present a major step forward beyond previous modelling approaches by integrating societal trends, much more progress is necessary to enhance the empirical basis for such trends and their representation in models. In this context, the project newTRENDs is developing
the analytical basis for a “2050 Energy Efficiency Vision” taking into account New Societal Trends:

(i) digitalisation of the economy and of private lives;

(ii) circular economy and low-carbon industry;

(iii) shared economy, and

(iv) prosumaging (combining production, consumption and storage of energy).

This report provides an assessment of energy demand-side models (FORECASTIndustry, FORECAST Tertiary, INVERT, PRIMES-BuiMo, and PRIMES-TREMOVE) from the perspective of policy makers’ needs at European level. The assessment is based on the analysis of models documentation as well as stakeholder
engagement through semi-structured interviews with modelling groups developing the assessed models. In particular, the analysis evaluates in how far they are able to represent New Societal Trends and provide a quantitative assessment of the energy demand-side policies that affect those trends.

The report contributes to providing knowledge base for strengthening the modeling of relevant policies in demand-side models in the EU, to appropriately represent New Societal Trends.


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