Pathways for New Societal Trends and gap analysis for demand models


Consumers and behavioural change
Efficient and resilient energy system


To achieve the Paris Agreement goals, all countries need to implement two central strategies:

i) enhancing energy efficiency (EE) and

(ii) decarbonizing the remaining energy supply and demand.

Scenarios with different focusses and assumptions have been developed to map this development until 2050. In this context, the newTRENDs project develops the analytical basis for a “2050 Energy Efficiency Vision” by taking into account New Societal Trends in energy demand modeling.

In this report, we focus on one of the three steps that newTRENDS has developed in this regard. We take a closer sectoral perspective to review the impact of the new societal trends on energy demand. Four sectors are considered, including industry, transport, tertiary and residential sectors. Then, to quantitatively analyze their impact, we also identify the gaps for modeling the new trends in the models that are involved in the project.

The report reviews 15 trend clusters that are identifed to be most relevant for energy demand. The clusters are further categorized into four groups: “universal”, “nice to have”, “optional”, and “parking lot”, assessing their impact on energy demand as well as their relevance to the models in this project. The report discusses the impact of these trend clusters in each sector, including industry, transport, tertiary, and residential sectors.

Based on the detailed sectoral review, the models that are involved in newTRENDs and identifies the modeling gaps in the models are introduced. These models are FORECAST-Industry, PRIMES-TREMOVE, FORECAST-Tertiary, FORECAST-Appliance, INVERT, and PRIMES-BuiMo. The authors also summarize the plan for model improvement. Furthermore, since new trends (such as urbanisation, remote work, etc.) might also lead to demand shifts between sectors, we assess such potential linkages from an inter-sectoral perspective. To evaluate the macro-economic impact, we focus on the general equilibrium modeling based on the GEM-E3 framework. Relevant modeling gaps for the new societal trends are identified and the improvement plans are summarized.


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