The newTRENDs project develops the analytical basis for a low carbon economy
taking into account New Societal Trends in energy demand:
- The project has identified the new societal trends and their clusters that
are expected to be most relevant or disruptive for the future energy
demand. - The identification was done based on a wide scanning of existing studies
and a series of expert workshops. In the end, 14 major trend clusters
were identified. - Four sectors were considered, including industry, transport, tertiary and
residential sectors. - All energy demand models available to the consortium have been
improved and enhanced so as to integrate the new trends. - Based on the updated models, we evaluated the impact of the trends on
the energy demand in each sector. - Then the output of the energy demand models has been fed to the GEME3 macroeconomic model so as to calculate the economic implications of
the different trends.
Four scenarios have been quantified by the models:
- Reference Scenario
- Decarbonisation Scenario
- New Societal Trends Scenario
- Decarbonisation and New Societal Trends Scenario
The Reference Scenario aims to capture today’s level of policy implementation
at the EU level and does not include any additional policies or measures that
contribute to climate neutrality by 2050. In the Reference Scenario, the energy
demand in each sector is calculated based on the most recent EU PRIMES
Reference Scenario. The Decarbonisation Scenario on the other hand describes
a pathway that achieves the long-term goal of at least 95% GHG reduction by
2050 compared to 1990. The scenario assumes a strong expansion of policy
support and regulation to meet this target.
Read the full report below:
